Thirty-five percent of the world’s energy comes from oil, and 96% of that oil is used for transportation. The current number of vehicles globally is estimated to be 700 million; that number is expected to double overall by 2030, and to triple in developing countries. Now consider that the U.S. has 27% of the world’s supply of coal yet only 2% of the oil. Coal-to-liquids technologies could bridge the gap between U.S. fuel supply and demand.
During spring and summer 2008, gasoline prices in the U.S. increased at the fastest rate experienced over the past 50-plus years. Retail prices reached over $4.00 per gallon, driving up prices of consumer goods and causing personal financial hardships. The U.S. economy is inextricably dependent on a stable and continuous supply of liquid fuels to power its transportation sector, but the only resource for obtaining liquid fuels in sufficient quantity is crude oil. Unfortunately, crude oil production in the U.S. has declined steadily since the 1970s, while imports have increased. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. produced about 58% of the petroleum products (crude oil and refined products) that it consumed in 2007. The balance was made up through imports — a disturbing trend that only seems to worsen each year.
Historically, the price of crude oil has risen somewhat predictably while exhibiting short-term capricious spikes. The most recent spike reached a record high of $147.27 a barrel in mid-July 2008. The price then dropped to below $41 on Dec. 5. Spikes are seldom captured in crude oil price forecasts. Revised EIA predictions are that oil prices will sit at $70 a barrel by 2015 and rise to $113 a barrel by 2030. Although these long-term projections may provide some comfort, the somber truth is that sharp price hikes can occur anytime and wreak havoc on America’s economy.
The U.S. has no sustained strategy for dealing with either oil price hikes or reduced oil imports. Since the 1972 oil embargo, America dabbled with the development of alternate sources for liquid fuels, but these efforts were abandoned as soon as oil prices dropped back to comfortable levels. Until electric vehicles (or some other mode of transport) replace the need for liquid fuels in the U.S., a sustained effort is needed to develop alternate resources to produce fuels fungible with the existing liquid fuel distribution and end-use infrastructure. Such resources could act like an insurance policy when crude oil price hikes are encountered.
Manage the Demand
A promising near-term way to control demand is by using hybrid vehicles. Such vehicles combine electric motors with small gasoline engines to achieve higher mileage per gallon of fuel. However, the long-term (over four years) reliability of their critical components is still unknown. Hybrid heavy-duty vehicles, such as long-haul 18-wheel trucks, have yet to be developed.
Another option is fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that only require hydrogen for their operation. They emit only moisture and none of the greenhouse gases associated with global warming. The challenge is that the supply chain for large amounts of hydrogen is not yet ready. Around 9 million tons of hydrogen are produced today in the petrochemical industry for internal use, but 64 million tons would be needed to power 300 million FCVs — 80% of the projected number of U.S. vehicles in 2040. Technologies for large-scale hydrogen production are still under development, as are those for hydrogen transport, storage, and distribution (although a few demonstration hydrogen refueling stations have been built in California and in Germany).
FCVs face many other challenges before they can be accepted for widespread use. One is increased demand for platinum, a catalyst needed for fuel cells and hydrogen purification, which has only one-thirtieth the availability of gold. Another is unforeseen environmental effects. Although it has been well-documented that FCV use reduces CO2 emissions, no studies have been made regarding the emission of water vapor by millions of FCVs in congested, humid cities throughout the U.S. Possible effects include perpetually damp roads, increased loads on building dehumidifiers, and altered local weather conditions.
Email
Comments
Print
Reuse
