April 15, 2006

Western coal rush

—Dr. Robert Peltier, PE

—Dr. Robert Peltier, PE

Editor-in-Chief

The hot hand in coal-fired power plant development is undoubtedly held by Nevada. In a departure from Sin City's latest marketing slogan, "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas," most of the 5,500 MW to be generated by plants proposed for the state is destined for use elsewhere, principally California. Even more megawatt-hours may end up crossing the border if the 1,580-MW Mohave Generating Station in Laughlin, Nev., shut down on New Year's Eve, remains off-line for long.

If and when

The thirst for power in the West just can't be slaked. A recent report from Merrill Lynch sums up the situation. "A record hot summer in 2005 awakened concerns that generation capacity shortages are becoming a risk in certain regions of the United States," the report said. "More normal summer weather in 2006 could limit any tightening of reserves in the coming year. New generation could start helping in the West and Texas by late in the decade." This optimistic outlook, however, assumes that the plants and the major transmission interconnects needed to bring their power to market will be built on time.

Another huge "if" is whether California implements a proposed rule that would halt imports of much electricity generated by coal-fired plants. Given the magnitude of the state's looming power problems, this proposal seems ludicrous; it would decrease reserve margins and increase dependence on natural gas for generating power. Electrons aren't color-coded by generation type, so I can't see how such a policy could be enforced. Maybe it's time to enact a "don't ask—don't tell" rule for electricity sources.