August 15, 2008

Reality bites California GHG plan

By Steven F. Greenwald and Jeffrey P. Gray

The California Air Resources Board (ARB) recently issued its long-awaited draft Climate Change Scoping Plan (Draft Plan) for implementing Assembly Bill (AB) 32, California’s ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-reduction initiative. AB 32 requires California to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020—roughly a 30% reduction in projected “business-as-usual” emissions levels or 168 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent.

In its own words, the Draft Plan proposes a comprehensive set of actions designed to not only reduce overall GHG emissions but also improve the environment, reduce dependence on oil, diversify energy sources, save energy, and enhance public health “while creating new jobs and enhancing the growth in California’s economy.” To achieve these modest goals, the Draft Plan identifies more than a dozen emissions-reduction measures that cut across the energy, transportation, industrial, and residential/commercial sectors. Key energy-related measures include increasing the state’s renewables portfolio standard (RPS) to 33%, expanding energy-efficiency programs, and participating in a regional cap-and-trade program being proposed by the Western Climate Initiative (WCI).

The task at hand is immense and time is short—regulations must be effective no later than January 2012, leaving only eight years to achieve the required emissions reductions. Success will require luck, extraordinary effort by regulators, and consumers’ willingness to accept significantly higher energy prices.

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