Cap and trade officially died on July 22 when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced at a news conference that the Democratic Caucus was unable to reach a consensus on any form of energy bill, even a recent short-lived version that proposed reducing carbon emissions from only the utility sector. I predict that carbon cap and trade is now dead for at least a decade, maybe longer.
Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) was next to the podium to offer his mea culpas. He described the stripped-down energy bill as an “admittedly narrow, limited bill” in seemingly apologetic tones. “President Obama called me before this meeting and said, point blank, he is committed to working in these next days at a more intensive pace... to help bring together the ability to find 60 votes for that comprehensive legislation.”
In fact, the long-promised comprehensive energy and climate legislation has devolved into a bill that now covers oil spill liability, manufacturing natural gas vehicles, and a home energy program known as Cash for Caulkers. It’s crunch time for the Senate; pass anything with the word “energy” attached, declare victory, and go home to campaign.
Practical Politician
President Obama, regardless of your personal feelings, is a realist and carefully invests his limited political capital on initiatives that he believes he can win. Therein lays the crux of the problem for advocates of cap-and-trade legislation—finding 60 votes has been and will remain an impossible task for the near future.
Without the promise of 60 votes, Obama’s support will continue to be merely strong rhetoric. In the past, Obama has used his words in support of various energy and climate legislative initiatives, especially before heading over to the overhyped UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen last December, but without response from the Senate. You may also remember that shortly after his election, Obama recorded a talk for YouTube promising climate legislation as one of his legislative priorities. However, the much-reported arm-twisting and deal-making that took place on the eve of the health care and financial regulatory reform votes illustrates that Obama is willing and ready to go move beyond rhetoric and spend much political capital when victory is within his grasp.
On the other hand, Obama has remained a cheapskate when it comes to investing political capital on energy legislation with carbon cap and trade. There have been no signs that he has been kicking butt (to use his own term) and taking names on any of the recent cap-and-trade legislative proposals. My guess is Obama knows that Reid’s announcement of the demise of the American Power Act (APA) was the fourth time that energy legislation with carbon cap and trade has failed in the Senate since 2003, the first time with 43 votes in favor and then again in 2005 with only 38 votes. During Obama’s watch, The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES) passed the House on June 26, 2009, by a vote of 219-212 (with 44 Democrats in opposition), but it never saw the light of day in the Senate. Cap and trade is now political kryptonite, even for Obama.
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