NERC: Power Supplies Ample for Summer Reliability

Depressed power demand due to a slow economic recovery will continue to be a major driver affecting bulk power system reliability during the summer months, the North American Reliability Corp. (NERC) said last week in its annual summer reliability assessment report.

The 2010 Summer Reliability Assessment (PDF) pegs a broad forecasted decline to the sluggish economy, pointing out that the projected peak summer demand has decreased more than 10 GW per year, for two consecutive years. The forecasted peak demand reduction is deeper in the U.S., but a reduction of 3.1% in summer peak demand is forecasted for Canada, primarily due to economic conditions.

"Decreased economic activity across North America is primarily responsible for a 2.2 percent reduction in forecasted summer peak demand from the 2009 forecast, and 3.9 percent compared to 2008," commented Mark Lauby, director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis at NERC.

The report also highlights a growth in wind resources: Some 7,000 MW of nameplate wind capacity has been added since last summer, bringing total installed wind capacity to 37,000 MW, NERC said.

The quasi-public regulatory agency also suggests that the industry continues to improve methods to determine expected on-peak capacity output for large-scale wind generation. “As a result, the percentage of on-peak wind generation capacity output is less than that projected last year, by nearly 4 percentage points,” it said.

Among other findings, the report also forecasts that demand response program participation will decrease for the first time in four years, reducing it to just under 30,000 MW for 2010 when compared to last year.

“A combination of the economic recession reducing large-end use of electricity and lower overall forecast demand has decreased the need and economic incentives for Demand Response providers,” NERC said. “Nonetheless, Demand Response is expected to be available and support emergency operating procedures to reduce peak demand.”

Source: NERC