A national assessment of demand response released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Thursday estimates that up to 20% of peak electricity use in the U.S. can be cut through programs in which customers agree to curb consumption at times of high demand.
The assessment, “A National Assessment of Demand Response Potential” (PDF), studies the potential for demand response, both nationally and for each state, through 2019. It finds that the potential for peak electricity demand reductions across the country is between 38 GW and 188 GW—up to 20% of national peak demand—depending on how extensively demand response is applied. FERC said in a statement that this could reduce the need to operate hundreds of power plants during peak times.
Peak demand, without any demand response, is estimated to grow at an annual average rate of 1.7%, reaching 810 GW in 2009 and approximately 950 GW by 2019.
By reducing electricity consumption at peak times like hot summer afternoons, when the most expensive generators are called into service, demand response can lower the cost of producing electricity, the regulatory agency said in the study.
The assessment was sent to Congress last week to fulfill FERC’s first Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 reporting requirement on demand response. Congress also directed FERC to develop a National Action Plan on Demand Response, which is due to Congress in June 2010.
“This study takes a flexible, real-world approach to gathering information on the potential for demand response,” FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff said. “It also makes available to the public an easy-to-use spreadsheet model, complete with data inputs and assumptions, so that states, utilities and other interested parties can make updates or modifications based on their own data and policy priorities.”
To estimate the potential for demand response under several types of programs, the assessment follows four scenarios in five- and 10-year horizons: Business as Usual, Expanded Business as Usual, Achievable Participation, and Full Participation. In comparing the Full Participation scenario with the Business-as-Usual scenario, the report estimates that demand response programs could reduce the projected 2019 peak load by as much as 150 GW. The results under the four scenarios illustrate how the demand response potential increases under various assumptions, such as the number of customers participating and the use of “smart” electric appliances with “dynamic” electric rates that change with system conditions.
The assessment also provides, for the first time, estimates of demand response potential for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. It estimates the demand response potential for residential and other types of electric customers in each state and analyzes the effect of using technologies, such as programmable thermostats, to assist consumers achieve the estimated potential.
Source: FERC
