EIA Annual Outlook Report: Fossil Fuels Dominate U.S. Generation in 2030
According to the newest Annual Energy Outlook report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. will add between 184 GW and 350 GW of new capacity by 2030, depending on economic growth. Coal will continue to provide the largest share of energy for the U.S. in 2030, but natural gas–fired plants will account for more than half of all capacity additions, followed by renewables at 22%, 18% for coal, and 5% for nuclear.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 forecasts that electricity demand will soar 36%, to 5,323 billion kWh in 2030, under its high economic growth scenario or increase a fair 16% in the low-growth case to 4,518 billion kWh.
Coal will provide 47% of electricity generated in 2030—only a modest decrease from 49% in 2007. Coal-fired capacity will be more severely stunted, however. The 2009 report downgrades installed coal-fired capacity added from 2007 to 2030 by more than half, to 46 GW (AEO2009) from 103 GW (AEO2008). “Growth in coal-fired generating capacity is limited by concerns about [greenhouse gas (GHG)] emissions and the potential for mandated limits, but existing plants continue to be used intensively,” the report says.
But GHG emission concerns will have little effect on construction of new natural gas–fired capacity. The natural gas share of generation increases to 21% in 2027, before dropping to 20% in 2030—about the same as 2007. The EIA supposes that natural gas will play a larger role than in recent reports because it is less carbon intensive than coal and because new natural gas–fired plants are much cheaper than new renewable or nuclear plants.
Generation from nuclear power will increase by 13%, from 100.5 GW in 2007 to 112.6 GW in 2030, the report predicts. This includes 3.4 GW of expansion at existing plants, 13.1 GW of new capacity, and 4.4 GW of retirements. In the 2009 reference case, some 10 new nuclear plants will be completed by 2030, the first few becoming eligible for Energy Policy Act of 2005 production tax credits. Seven units will be retired through 2028.
The nuclear share of total generation falls somewhat, however, from 19% in 2007 to 18% in 2030. On the other hand, supported by federal tax incentives and state renewable programs, renewable generation capacity is set to increase by more than 100% by 2030, when it accounts for 14% of generation.
Of all renewables, wind power and biomass will see the most growth. Wind will increase from 0.8% of total generation in 2007 to 2.5% in 2030. Biomass, meanwhile, will grow from 0.9% of total generation to 4.5% in 2030. “In the AEO2009 reference case, federal subsidies for renewable generation are assumed to expire as enacted,” the EIA said. “Their extension would have a large impact on renewable generation.”
Predictably, transmission costs are expected to increase 35% from 2007 to 2030. The report links the increase to the additional investment needed “to meet electricity demand, alleviate existing transmission constraints and bottlenecks, facilitate the operation of competitive wholesale energy markets, and link new generation from remote wind facilities with demand centers.”
The report predicts that technology choices for new generating capacity will be made to minimize costs—but also to meet local and federal emissions constraints. Regulatory uncertainly will also affect capacity planning decisions.
“Unless they are equipped with CCS equipment, new coal-fired plants could incur higher costs as a result of higher expenses for siting and permitting,” it says. “Because nuclear and renewable power plants (including wind plants) do not emit GHGs, however, their costs are not directly affected by regulatory uncertainty.”
Source: Energy Information Administration