The International Energy Agency (IEA) in a new report said global use of coal, including for power generation, is expected to reach a record 8.77 billion tonnes this year. The group said China’s continued use of coal in its power plants, along with the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global gas markets, means coal use likely will remain at near-record levels at least through 2027.
The agency’s Coal 2024 report, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual publication about global coal markets, shows that global coal use has rebounded after falling at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Demand is expected to remain close to current levels through the next three years even as more renewable energy is added to power grids worldwide.
“The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is reshaping the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal use,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s Director of Energy Markets. “As a result, our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply. However, weather factors—particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer—will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term.”
The IEA said the use of coal for power generation already has passed its peak in the U.S. and the European Union. It also noted the recent closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar, the last remaining coal-fired power plant in the UK.
POWER recently reported that stockpiles of coal at U.S. power plants remain high, with as much as $6.5 billion worth of the fuel sitting unburned at those sites.
Increasing Demand in China
Coal demand in China is expected to show a 1% increase this year, to 4.9 billion tonnes, which the IEA said would be a record level. India’s use of coal this year is expected to show a 5% jump, to 1.3 billion tonnes, a level previously reached only by China. U.S. energy agencies have not released updated 2024 figures on coal consumption for power generation, but data shows coal consumption within the U.S. electric power sector was just 387.17 million short tons in 2023.
U.S. consumption of coal topped 1 billion short tons during the 2005-2008 period. That was prior to the introduction of hydraulic fracturing to the nation’s oil and natural gas industry, which since 2008 has helped make the U.S. the nation’s leading producer of those fuels. Natural gas increasingly is being used for U.S. power generation, producing more than 40% of the nation’s electricity today.
Coal-fired generation accounts for about 16% of current U.S. electricity production, down from more than 50% about 25 years ago.
Demand for coal continues to increase in some emerging economies. Increases in population and demand for electricity in countries such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam is driving more coal-fired power generation, along with industrial use of the fuel for heating and in manufacturing facilities.
The IEA in its report said the use of coal globally likely will drop near the end of the decade due to the continued growth of renewable energy, even as demand for electricity continues to rise.
Lewis Perkins, president of Apparel Impact Institute, which works to reduce carbon emissions from the apparel sector, told POWER: “The 2025 coal demand projections from the IEA highlight the continued reliance on coal in certain regions, particularly in emerging economies, even as we see promising trends toward electrification and low-carbon energy alternatives globally. While coal demand has peaked in many advanced economies, manufacturing hubs in emerging economies remain dependent on this fossil fuel, underscoring the critical need for scalable, lower-carbon energy solutions.”
Perkins continued: “While the trends from the IEA report are encouraging, they also set the stage for broader industry alignment on alternative fuels and energy diversification to minimize dependency on coal. Continued collaboration between brands, manufacturers, and governments will be essential to accelerate this transition.”
—Darrell Proctor is a senior editor for POWER.
