About 1,792 MW of existing generation in the New York bulk power system is expected to retire or be mothballed over the next decade, and if demand heightens as has been forecast by 2020, the state’s grid could see a 1,000-MW generation gap, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) warned in its recently released 2012 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA).
The document, which reviews the reliability of the New York bulk power system over the next 10-year planning horizon (2013-2022), identifies two types of reliability issues: transmission security violations—or the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of power system components—which are expected to occur as soon as 2013, and resource adequacy violations, which could occur by 2020.
Potential transmission security violations were identified in three different areas of the state (the Genesee, Central and Hudson Valley zones). “Because the transmission security violations occur in the first five years of the study period, the utilities serving those zones—Rochester Gas & Electric, National Grid and Orange & Rockland—must provide local transmission plans or regulated solutions to address these needs,” NYISO said.
The 2012 RNA also suggests that unless more generation or transmission capacity is added in the Hudson Valley and downstate regions where resource adequacy deficiencies were identified, the current system will violate resource adequacy criteria beginning in 2020 and extending through 2022.
The assessment presents five different potential scenarios that could impact system reliability. One, which models the retirement of the two generating units Entergy’s three-reactor Indian Point Energy Center before 2016, could cause both resource adequacy deficiencies and transmission security violations, it suggests.
The other scenarios provide information on resource adequacy violations based upon higher or lower demand forecasts, the hypothetical retirement of all coal-fired generation in New York by 2015, and the maximum amount of generation capacity in various parts of New York State that could retire without causing resource adequacy violations.
The regional grid operator’s previous RNA completed in 2010 found that the state’s electric power resources (generation, transmission and demand-side program) would meet reliability needs through 2020, assuming energy efficiency programs and planned resource additions were implemented as anticipated, and no significant facilities were retired from service. “There are several reasons the 2012 RNA now finds reliability needs related to resource adequacy by 2020,” NYISO said. “The main reason is that generation modeled in the 2012 RNA is about 1,000 megawatts less due to retirements or mothballing of generating units. In addition, the load forecast for 2020 is slightly higher, and the amount of projected demand-side resources is down slightly.”
NYISO will now develop a comprehensive planning plan that integrates market-based and regulated solutions. A public forum to present the results of the assessment has been arranged at the Peter A. Berle Conference Center on Sept. 24 at 2:30 p.m.
Sources: POWERnews, NYISO
—Sonal Patel, Senior Writer (@POWERmagazine)
