• Competitive Irish electricity market to go live in May 2018
  • Retirement of old coal, peat, and gas power stations opens up opportunity for 1.7GW of new cleaner, high-efficiency gas plants
  • Battery storage and demand-side management projects could capture a share of €60M/year revenues
  • Policy uncertainties remain due to Brexit and lack of detail on decarbonisation and renewable energy targets

New analysis by Aurora Energy Research, the leading energy market modelling and analytics firm, about changes to the All-Island electricity market highlights opportunities for a new generation of cleaner technologies.

Aurora’s analysis shows that renewable and high-efficiency gas generators could all stand to gain from the forthcoming root-and-branch changes to the Irish power market.

In its new report on Ireland’s power market, Aurora has shown that the introduction of the Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) will push a shift towards a greener, more flexible energy system. The reforms are intended to encourage competition across the sector, from security of supply, to ensuring the highest possible level of renewable electricity on the grid.

Through the removal of subsidies for peat generation, the establishment of a competitive capacity market, and swift implementation of a new renewables support scheme, the island of Ireland is set to meet its renewable electricity target of 40% by 2020. Furthermore, the worst-polluting and most expensive plants will be forced to compete with cheap renewable providers – providing cleaner electricity and protecting energy security at the minimum cost to consumers.

Further deployment of renewable generation is supported by rapid deployment of battery storage under EirGrid’s DS3 programme. Aurora’s analysis shows that battery developers successful in next month’s tender will expect to earn a combined €318 million over the next five years. As a result, it is expected that the tender will be heavily over-subscribed. 2

Aurora notes that significant uncertainties persist and must be resolved if the island is to continue its strong progress towards decarbonisation of electricity. Beyond the obvious risk to the Single Electricity Market posed by Brexit, strong government and regulatory signals surrounding renewable support and DS3 would reassure investors and developers of renewable and flexible generation projects.

Mateusz Wronski, head of product development at Aurora, commented:

“It is clear that such all-encompassing changes to the markets mean there will be a significant shift in the way the All-Island system will generate electricity. With competition comes short-term uncertainty, but also the opportunity for providing cleaner electricity to consumers with little effect on bills.”

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Resources Webinar: Aurora will host a WebEx session about the I-SEM on Friday, 2 March 10.00AM. To register for the webinar, click here

Media contact Dr Rachel Roffe, Media & Marketing Associate E: [email protected] M: +44 (0)7584254232 Twitter: Follow us @AuroraER_Oxford

Notes to editors Aurora Energy Research is a leading independent energy market modelling and analytics company founded in 2013 by University of Oxford Professors and economists. Aurora provides deep insights into European and global energy markets supported by cutting edge models and data driven analytics to support project development and investment decisions. Services include subscription-based forecasts, reports, forums and bespoke consultancy services. Aurora Energy Research has offices in Oxford and Berlin. For further information, please visit: http://www.auroraer.com