China: A World Powerhouse

By Sonal Patel

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Fossil Fuels Predominate

Coal remains the dominant fuel for power generation in China, accounting for more than 70% of the nation’s total generation portfolio. The country consumed about 3.1 billion metric tons (mt) of standard coal in 2009, and it’s expected to consume 3.3 billion mt in 2010, according to a recent report by the state-run Xinhua news agency. And, though the 11th five-year plan calls for the country to increase its share of natural gas and other technologies—and the government has announced plans to shut down some 31 GW of small and inefficient power plants—coal will continue to serve as the country’s energy backbone for years to come (Figure 5).

5. King Coal to hold reign. Coal will continue to serve as the country’s energy backbone through 2030 and beyond. Sources: China Electricity Council, U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2009

One reason is that the government plans to replace smaller units with more efficient, midsize and larger units of 300 MW and larger (see sidebar, “China’s Quest for Cleaner Coal”). Another is that China wants renewable energy sources like wind to meet 15% of its energy needs by 2020—but its transmission network isn’t able to absorb that rate of growth. Additionally, officials want new coal-fired capacity in reserve so demand can be met when the wind doesn’t blow. As Shi Pengfei, vice president of the Chinese Wind Power Association, told The Wall Street Journal last September: “China will need to add a substantial amount of coal-fired power capacity by 2020 in line with its expanding economy, and the idea is to bring some of the capacity earlier than necessary in order to facilitate the wind-power transmission.”

China’s Quest for Cleaner Coal

As International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka put it last April, one advantage to the speed and scale of China’s expanding coal use is that it has brought a new urgency to deploying a full range of clean coal technologies. Recognizing the dominant role that coal will play in its future energy mix, the country has become a test site for supercritical coal, coal liquefaction and gasification, coal mine methane capture and utilization, and carbon capture and storage.

That emphasis seems to have paid off: In 2009, five 1,000-MW ultrasupercritical plants were commissioned in the first three quarters, and in 2010 supercritical and ultrasupercritical units are expected to account for over 40% of the total newly built thermal power generating units. From 2010 to 2020, new power plants with unit capacities of 600 MW and greater will all be required to be supercritical, and about half of the newly built power generating units are expected to be ultrasupercritical.

Examples of plants that have pioneered ultrasupercritical technologies include the ¥9.6 billion Yuhuan plant, which came online in 2007 on the coast of East China’s Zhejiang Province. The 4,000-MW plant’s units—China’s first 1,000-MW ultrasupercritical boilers—run at an efficiency of 45%.

A more recent example, the Siemens Energy–built Waigaoqiao III Power Plant in Shanghai (Figure 6), is said to have saved some 900,000 metric tons of raw coal and reduced CO₂ output by 1.9 million tons since start-up in 2008. The plant reaches an efficiency of up to 46%, making it “the most efficient coal plant in the world,” Siemens claims.

6. Ultrasupercritical gains. Using ultrasupercritical technology, the Waigaoqiao III Power Plant in Shanghai has been touted as saving some 900,000 metric tons of raw coal and reducing CO₂ output by 1.9 million tons since start-up in 2008. Its older relative—Waigaoqiao II, in operation since 2004—was the first 1,000-MW-class supercritical/ultrasupercritical power plant in China. Its units reportedly reach 42% efficiency. The Waigaoqiao power plants’ combined capacities are 5 GW, one-third of Shanghai’s total consumption. Courtesy: Siemens Energy

China is also trailblazing in the carbon capture arena. China’s largest coal producer, the Shenhua Group, has a joint U.S.-China project that aims to collect high-purity CO₂ from a direct coal liquefaction facility in the Ordos Basin of Inner Mongolia that is slated to reach operational status in 2010/11, with a goal of eventually sequestering 2.9 metric tons of pure CO₂ per year, most likely in a nearby saline aquifer.

Meanwhile, led by China’s largest power producer, the Huaneng Group, the 250-MW GreenGen project—China’s first commercial-scale integrated gasification combined-cycle facility that includes carbon capture technology—is under construction in the Bohai Basin in Tianjin. That project will seek to capture and sequester 25,000 to 30,000 metric tons of CO₂ per year (about 2% of its CO₂ emissions—much smaller than the pilot tests under way elsewhere) starting in 2012–2013, with a higher target set for 2017.

Natural gas, which plays a smaller but significant role in China’s thermal power mix, may see the greatest percentage rise in installed power capacity over the next decade, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasts. Examples of combined-cycle plants under construction in Guangdong Province include the 1,170-MW Huizhou power plant. Some 20 gas-fired power plants are in operation or under construction, and several coal-fired and oil-fired plants are being converted to run on natural gas in that province.

Thermal Power Slowdown Sends Chinese Equipment Makers Abroad

Though China’s 11th five-year plan stipulates a substantial increase in new plant construction—and the 12th plan is expected to do the same—industry experts suggest that China’s power investment is expected to slow in the next few years, forcing equipment makers such as Dongfang Electric Corp. to find new markets in India, South America, and Africa. That company’s chair, Wang Ji, told the China Daily recently that it would increase its share of overseas business to 30% from the current 19% over the next three years to offset slow growth in domestic demand, especially for thermal power generators.

Dongfang, which supplies nearly 40% of the country’s power equipment, said that among new orders secured last year, thermal power products decreased to 45%, while orders for nuclear power units rose 23%, and orders for wind power generators were up 15%.

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