The Nuclear Option
Though hydro is expected to continue providing the majority of power, Caron noted that, "After 2015 demand growth encourages the development of both traditional generation sources and alternatives to conventional generation. Growth is particularly strong in natural gas, wind and biomass. Nuclear grows on a net basis and coal declines, largely reflecting the phase-out in Ontario."
Demand-side management, energy efficiency, and nonhydro renewables, including solar photovoltaic and biomass, are also expected to play a role. But because nonhydro renewable generation sources "grow from a very small base, they do not have a great impact, that is, as a share of total power generation, over the period to 2030. However, they constitute significant localized opportunities and potentially pave the way to an important electric generation platform for the future."
Given these projections, it seems likely that in the longer term, nuclear power will provide the bulk of new baseload generation. That’s certainly the view of Atomic Energy Canada Ltd.’s (AECL’s) president and CEO, Hugh MacDiarmid. In a June 2008 address, "Nuclear Energy: The Third Pillar of Canada’s Energy Future," he identified oil and gas as the first pillar of Canada’s energy infrastructure, hydro as the second, and nuclear as the third "complementary" pillar. He observed that "across Canada, nuclear is being examined with greater interest than perhaps ever before."
In Canada, nuclear power provides 15% of overall electricity generation. (The U.S. percentage is 20%.) Canada’s 20 nuclear reactors make it the eighth-largest nuclear power generator in the world, and, according to MacDiarmid, "Ontario is already the third most nuclear-intensive power grid in the world — after only France and Lithuania — with over half its electricity coming from nuclear." However, to date, only three provinces — Ontario, New Brunswick, and Québec — have nuclear power assets (though Bruce Power is considering sites elsewhere in Canada):
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Ontario Power Generation owns Pickering Units A1 and A4 – A8 (Figure 3) and Darlington Units 1 – 4; Bruce Power owns Bruce Units A3 and A4 and B5 – B8 (Bruce A1 and A2 are being refurbished, with an early 2010 restart date) (Figure 4).
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New Brunswick Power owns Point Lepreau 1 (under refurbishment, with a late 2009 restart planned).
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Hydro Québec owns Gentilly 2, a plant that has particular importance for grid stability and provides electricity during periods of low hydroelectric generation (Figure 5).
The same three provinces also account for about 62% of Canada’s total electricity generation capacity.
3. Pickering Nuclear Generating Station. The Pickering Station, at over 4,100 MW, is one of the largest nuclear plants in the world and uses the CANDU nuclear reactor. Courtesy: CANDU Owners Group Inc.
4. Bruce Nuclear Generation Station. This eight-unit nuclear plant was constructed in stages between 1970 and 1987. Bruce Nuclear Generating Station is the largest nuclear facility in the world, with a total output of over 6,200 MW, and is the only nongovernment-owned nuclear plant in Canada. Bruce A1 and A2 are currently being refurbished. Courtesy: CANDU Owners Group Inc.
5. Gentilly Nuclear Generating Station. Gentilly was constructed in stages between 1966 and 1983. Unit 1, a prototype CANDU reactor, is being decommissioned. Unit 2 has a net output of 638 MW. Courtesy: CANDU Owners Group Inc.
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