Supply versus Preferred Supply
The NEB has stated that electricity supplies are adequate to meet expected demand for the next few years, with perhaps one exception. Ontario has determined that all coal-fired generation in that province must be phased out of operation by 2015 and replaced by a mixture of gas, nuclear, wind, and other renewable technologies.
Ontario Power Generation (OPG), a public company owned by the Government of Ontario that supplies 70% of the province’s electricity generation, operates five coal-fired power stations rated a total of 8,577 MW. Nanticoke Generating Station, with its eight units rated at 3,964 MW, is one of the largest fossil fuel power plants in North America and is at the top of the Ontario government’s list of plants to be mothballed.
Coincidentally, Ontario Power Authority (OPA), roughly equivalent to a U.S. independent system operator, noted that electricity demand is expected to exceed supply by 2014 in that province. The OPA estimates that the gap between declining supply and increasing demand will reach about 24,000 MW by 2025 if no additional generating sources are added and all the coal-fired plants are actually mothballed.
To avoid future imbalances, the OPA reviewed Ontario’s supply options and has made recommendations to the government on its projected future supply mix: Maintain the share of nuclear generation and replace coal by raising the share of gas-fired generation and renewable resources.
Hydro Holds the Most Power
Hydropower plays a significant role in Canada’s electricity supply profile, accounting for 61.7% of its electricity supply and nearly 100% of its generation from renewables, according to Statistics Canada (Figure 2). Canada’s total hydroelectricity supply is second in the world to China’s. Some 25% of Canada’s energy demand is met by hydropower, compared to 3% for the U.S.; the balance, 34%, is exported to the U.S. The majority of Canada’s hydroelectricity is produced in Québec, British Columbia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, and Manitoba.
2. Fuel mix. Canada is the second-largest producer of natural gas in the Western Hemisphere, after the U.S., and natural gas constitutes about 27% of Canada’s primary energy mix—similar to the percentage in the U.S. and Mexico. In 2006, Canada exported 3.6 Tcf of natural gas to the U.S., representing 86% of total U.S. natural gas imports that year. Expect Canada to use more natural gas for power generation in future years, leaving less available for export to the U.S. Source: Natural Resources Canada
Even with its diversified energy mix, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions have risen 24% above its Kyoto Protocol commitments since 1990, making it the sixth highest out of 40 developed "Annex 1" signatories to Kyoto. By 2010 these emissions could reach 45% above Canada’s Kyoto target. Alberta, for example, contributes 25% of Canada’s air pollutants, despite having 10% of its population.
In a November 2008 presentation on "The Future of Hydroelectric Power in Canada," NEB Chair and CEO Gaétan Caron noted that "extensive development of new hydroelectric projects" was planned for Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Manitoba, and British Columbia, with smaller projects planned for Alberta and Ontario. He added that "Many of the hydro projects are located far from the customer base and will require major transmission investments."
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