Continued economic growth in the U.S. over the next several years will inevitably drive growth in electricity consumption (Figure 1). Meeting the projected 40% increase in national demand by 2030 that today’s double-digit annual growth rates will produce will require building a lot more power plants—some to replace the capacity of retired units (Tables 1 and 2).
1. Double digits across the board. New generation capacity is being developed that has planned commercial start-up dates between 2008 and 2012. Source: Industrial Info Resources
Table 1. Actual and planned U.S. power generation resource growth (1998-2008) by state. Source: Industrial Info Resources
Table 2. U.S. power generation construction kickoff summary (2000-2008) by generation technology. Source: Industrial Info Resources
Table 3. U.S. power generation construction kickoff summary by primary fuel type (2000-2008). Source: Industrial Info Resources
Table 4. Total installed cost of generation by construction kickoff year (in 2006 dollars) by fuel type, in millions of dollars. Source: Industrial Info Resources
Coal: The king still gets no respect
Despite the best efforts of environmentalists and renewable-energy advocates, coal still fuels about 50% of U.S. electricity generation, and its share may rise. A boom in coal plant construction is in full swing: 27 units totaling 12,000 MW, collectively worth more than $20 billion, are already past the groundbreaking phase. Those 12,000 MW represent 34% of all capacity currently being built in the U.S. Of the total, 1,174 MW are expected to come on-line this year, to be followed by 5,888 MW in 2009 and 4,700 MW in 2010.
The near-term units signify only the beginning of a longer-term expansion of U.S. coal-fired generation. In addition to the 27 units that have already poured concrete, another 243 units representing 74,000 MW and worth $120 billion are on the drawing boards of utilities and independent developers. Of that total, 26,000 MW are scheduled to break ground this year, with the rest following between 2009 and 2011.
Utilities have proposed building 84 of the 243 longer-term units to increase their generating capacity by 31,300 MW. They envision building 44 units with a total capacity of 16,300 MW as greenfield plants. The other 40 units, representing 15,000 MW, would be additions to existing power stations.
In contrast, private energy producers have proposed 159 coal-fired generating units able to produce 42,700 MW. Of these, 120 units and 31,900 MW are planned to be part of greenfield plants while 39 units and 10,800 MW will be added to existing plants.
The vast majority of the projects in development will rely on conventional pulverized coal combustion. But an increasing number plan to use integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) or circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler technology. Specifically, 40 IGCC plants totaling 23,000 MW, and 22 CFB units totaling 6,600 MW have been proposed nationwide.
New coal plants are being proposed not just to meet future demand but also to replace coal plants scheduled for retirement. Since the beginning of 2002, 102 coal-burning units totaling 5,200 MW have been decommissioned. Another 83 units representing 9,363 MW are scheduled to be shut down for good by the end of 2012.
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