November 1, 2009

Time Flies

Dr. Robert Peltier, PE

Developing Countries Pick Nuclear

The location of these new reactors provides a peek into where the U.S. fits into the global nuclear marketplace. Unexpectedly, the countries with the largest fleets of operating nuclear plants are not the countries looking to add plants. As many as 20 countries will build nuclear plants by 2030 that do not currently have one.

The numbers also indicate that developing countries are likely to lead the industry in new construction in future years. For example, China, with 11 operating nuclear plants, leads the planet with 16 more under construction. Five of those plants broke ground in 2009 and six in 2008. Next, the Russian Federation, with 31 operating reactors, has another nine reactors under construction. Tied for third place, with six reactors under construction, are India (17 operating reactors) and the Republic of Korea (20 operating reactors). Japan will have 55 nuclear plants when its two units now under construction are completed.

Here’s another interesting observation that helps put the progress of the U.S. nuclear program into perspective. The explosive growth of global nuclear power construction is determined not only by the number of projects under construction but also by the number of projects that have been recently completed. IAEA statistics show that the last nuclear plants to enter commercial service (ignoring the Browns Ferry 1 restart in 2007) were China’s Tianwan 1 and India’s Tarapur 3, both in mid-2006.

The number of new plants under construction grew from 33 in 2008 to more than 50 in 2009, but only two plants have been completed since 2006. Lots of starts but few plants completed means that the backlog of work under way is growing. Even so, it’s a fraction of the peak of 233 plants under construction in 1979. The average has been around 30 to 40 plants under construction in each of the past 15 years.