Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources, has promised to complete legislation on a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS), perhaps by late spring. It would require, according to the February 4 conference draft, that 16% of the nation’s electricity come from wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources by 2020.
The national RPS would only apply to utilities that sold more than 4 million MWh of electricity during the prior year. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Form 861 database (2007), 127 of the nation’s 3,272 suppliers would be affected by the regulation.
A 16% national RPS would require almost a 500% increase in renewable generation in the next decade, or about 32,000 MW. EIA data show that the U.S. had about 8% renewables online at the end of 2007. What’s worse is that very few existing projects would count toward the requirements of this proposed legislation.
Punishing the Leaders
A very surprising focal point of the discussion draft is that any renewable project that entered service prior to January 1, 2006, would not be counted against meeting the 2020 goal. Such a stipulation would punish the early movers on renewables, which seems an odd way to win states’ support for a federal standard.
An obvious loser would be California. Last November, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Executive Order S-14-08 ramped up the Golden State’s RPS standard from 20% by 2010 to 33% by 2020 — an unachievable goal if ever there was one. The state’s three largest investor-owned utilities were hovering around 13% renewables at the end of 2008, which put them far from reaching even the 20% by 2010 goal. Transmission project delays, a permitting quagmire, developer contract default, and difficulty in obtaining project financing are the most common reasons cited for slow progress. Yet, for all its efforts, California could find itself even further behind should a federal standard be enacted that disregards pre-2006 renewable generation.
My intent isn’t to disparage California’s RPS but rather to note that California’s RPS solutions are home-grown — designed to meet that state’s distinctive needs and available resources — and have been developed without help from the federal government. Will a one-size-fits-all RPS work in the other 48 states (Hawaii is exempt)? Apparently, Bingaman believes common rules for all states are possible. I don’t.
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