Order of battle
It'll be interesting to see how the battle for the next generation of nukes unfolds in coming years. Who will emerge as the kings of the hill? The biggest challenge suppliers will face is whether there will be enough firm business to support five different reactor designs.
Every member of the world's nuclear club is staking out turf in what promises to be the largest business opportunity of this era:
- China, which is planning to build 25 new reactors by 2020, has just selected Westinghouse's 1,100-MW AP1000 for four new plants to be sited at Sanmen and Yangjiang. Westinghouse may be in line for perhaps 10 new projects in the U.S. as well.
- TXU has chosen MHI Nuclear Energy Systems' 1,540-MW advanced pressurized-water reactor (APWR) for 2 to 6 GW of new capacity, also in the 2015–2020 time frame. The reactor is based on technology that MHI developed for a two-unit, 3,000-MW expansion of Japan Atomic Power Co.'s Tsuruga Power Station.
- Last June, NRG Energy filed a letter of intent with the NRC to add two GE ABWR (advanced boiling water reactor) units at the South Texas Project at a cost of $5.2 billion. Four of the units have been operating in Japan since 1996, two more are nearing completion in Taiwan, and construction has begun on a seventh unit in Japan.
- GE is also hawking its 1,550-MW "Economic Simplified" BWR, which the NRC says it may certify by the end of this year. Dominion and Entergy have expressed interest in the design for three sites.
- Areva NP is marketing its 1,600-MW EPR (evolutionary pressurized water reactor) standardized design in the U.S. through Unistar Nuclear, its joint venture with Constellation Energy. The first EPR, now under construction at Olkiluoto 3 in Finland (this month's cover photo), has an expected in-service date of late 2009.
A few good partners
Prospective nuclear plant owners will be looking not just for good reactor technology but also for business partners strong in all phases of the plant life cycle. EPCs lacking any of the following need not apply: time- and cost-efficient construction practices, the ability to ramp up construction capacity to match demand, access to long lead-time forgings for reactor vessels (now available only from two overseas suppliers), and a lean but solid supply chain that can service dozens of simultaneous projects across the globe.
It has been said that while amateur military strategists talk tactics, the professionals discuss logistics. In the looming battle for nuclear market share, the winners will be the suppliers with robust global supply chains.
--Dr. Robert Peltier, PE, Editor-in-Chief
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