Climate Change and Alternative Energy Sources
In November 2009, Brazil voluntarily agreed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to a stunning 40% by 2020 when compared to the country’s projected business-as-usual emission levels. Most of that percentage will be achieved by reductions of up to 80% in deforestation. The move was touted as a "political gesture" to shame developed countries into making similar pledges at Copenhagen in December.
But Brazil, a country that harbors 60% of Amazonia, hasn’t always been as committed to the environment. The country has effected laws regarding forests, water, and wildlife since the 1930s, though their implementation and enforcement have not always been ideal. In fact, until 2007, Brazil’s position in international climate change talks had been in the vein of China’s and India’s, which is that Northern Hemisphere industrial countries should shoulder the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And the country had for years outright resisted plans to create market mechanisms to provide payments for reductions in deforestation and carbon emissions.
This seemingly sudden burst of "green" awareness is being driven by politics — but it is rooted in public alarm about how climate change could wreak havoc on the country’s economy, analysts say. Concerns ride on severe droughts in the past decade, which killed crops, kindled forest fires, caused disease, and threatened power supplies. Environmental issues have also been propelled onto the political agenda due in large part to the recent emergence of presidential candidate Marina Silva. The former environmental minister — and a rubber tapper who had been virtually illiterate until her teens in her home state Acre, deep in Brazil’s western Amazonian jungle — has been on the frontlines of Brazil’s battle against deforestation.
Alternative energy’s potential has always been apparent in Brazil, however. In 2002, reeling from crippling power shortages, the government passed a pioneering program (Programa de Incentivo às Fontes Alternativas de Energia, or PROINFA) to increase power supplies with alternative energy. With about $6.22 billion in grants, including financing for a variety of research and development projects in biomass energy technologies and a series of fiscal incentives, within five years the country rapidly increased its capacity of biomass- and wind-powered projects.
Production of electricity from bagasse is particularly being encouraged by the government not only because it is cheap (US$15/metric ton), but also because sugarcane harvest season extends over an eight-month period, from April to November. This coincides with the period of low rains — and possible drought — in the Brazilian Southeast. That means that bagasse power plants can operate at a cost of US$74/MWh with a capacity factor of 60%, in synergy with hydroelectric power plants, the government says. Other advantages include a synergy with ethanol production — a major Brazilian industry. Sugarcane production in the country in 2007 was about 500 million metric tons, and it is estimated to reach about 1,075 million metric tons in 2017. The potential for power is so vast that the government proposes the sugarcane industry could produce up to 10,000 MW of power by 2012 if sugarcane bagasse and leaves were used in cogeneration projects.
Currently, Brazil has 393 bagasse power plants, a majority of them in the south-central region. Spurred by PROINFA auctions, 91 more are under implementation and 23 are being studied.
The PROINFA program hasn’t worked as well to foster wind power development, though the country harbors tremendous wind potential, particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South. But, with government incentives, including PROINFA auctions specifically for wind, massive growth is expected for the industry, says the Brazilian Wind Energy Association. The organization and government expect that 10 GW of wind energy could be installed by 2020, up from the 605 MW installed as of November 2009, mostly in the state of Ceará, in the Northeast. The industry hopes that a wind energy auction planned for December 2009 will pave the way for 1,000 MW in new generating capacity and kick-start Brazil’s wind energy sector, which already accounts for 70% of the total in Latin America. More than 4,500 MW of projects are qualified for that auction.
In 2008, four major wind turbine manufacturers — Enercon, Suzlon, Vestas, and IMPSA — entered the market, and the number of qualified developers and operators increased considerably. Investment also picked up as Brazilian groups and new international players from Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, Norway, Germany, and other European countries showed interest in the industry.
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