May 15, 2008

Global Monitor (May 2008)

Hoover Dam could stop generating

A new study concludes that within a decade, growing water demand in the West and reduced runoff due to drought may deplete waters feeding the 2,080-MW Hoover Dam, a facility that generates power for more than a million people in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California (Figure 6).

6. Dry dam ahead? Drought and increased demand could be threatening Hoover Dam’s ability to produce hydro power. Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that these factors are causing a net deficit of nearly one million acre-feet of water per year in the Colorado River system, which includes Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The study estimates a 50% chance that Lake Mead, already operating at a deficit, could drop too low for power production. Additionally, the Scripps researchers predict that there is a 50% chance that by 2021, Lake Mead could run dry if water demand is not curbed and climate changes continue as expected.

Japan turns to fossil fuels

Since Asia’s largest utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), shut down its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (Figure 7) following a major earthquake last July, Japan’s nuclear-generated output has plummeted—and will stay low. Reuters reported that TEPCO’s nuclear output was 79.2% lower this February than last year, and the Hokuriku Electric Power Co. announced recently that it expects to keep its sole nuclear plant closed for the business year ending in March 2008.

7. No nuke. The post-earthquake shutdown of Japan’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant is requiring a shift to fossil-fueled generation. Courtesy: Tokyo Electric Power

So to meet swelling demand, the country that once derived 30% of its power needs from nuclear generation has offset that decline with fossil-fueled generation.

Japan’s 10 main utilities have generated record-high amounts of electricity for seven months straight compared with last year. Thermal generation was up 37.6% from February 2007, and last month, a Reuter’s survey found that the country’s 10 utilities will rely on 141 million barrels of oil in the business year starting April 1—a 50% increase from the volume purchased two years ago.

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant has the fourth-largest generation capacity in the world, its seven reactors producing 8,212 MW collectively. Before its shutdown, the plant supplied 6% of Japan’s total power needs.

The plant was shut down after the July 16, 2007, offshore earthquake (whose epicenter was only 11 miles away) caused a fire within and destroyed a transformer building. The Japanese trade ministry ordered plant operations halted indefinitely for ongoing safety checks.

U.S. reactors produce record power

The Japanese earthquake, combined with aging facilities in the UK and unplanned outages in Germany, caused a general slump in global nuclear generation in 2007 of 3.6%, from 2.8 billion MWh in 2006, according to Nucleonics Week.

U.S. reactors, on the other hand, set a record for output, surging to 843 million MWh and utilizing an average 91% of reactor capacity. National total nuclear generation was 2.4% higher than in 2006 and 2.3% higher than in the previous record year, 2004. Though the total number of operating U.S. commercial reactors (104) remained below 1990 levels, generation was 40% higher than the 577 billion kWh produced in that year.

The South Texas Project’s South Texas-1 in Bay City, Texas (Figure 8) generated the largest output of any reactor in the world—12.36 MWh. Constellation Energy’s Calvert Cliffs-1 in Maryland performed the best against promised output levels, exceeding capacity level all year.

8. Record holder. In 2007, South Texas-1 in Bay City, Texas had the largest output of any reactor in the world: 12.36 MWh. Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Seven units closed down in 2007: Bulgaria’s Kozloduy-3 and -4, Slovakia’s Bohunice-1, and the UK’s Dungeness A-1 and -2 and Sizewell A-1 and -2; only four reactors were added: India’s 220-MW Kaiga-3 , China’s 1,000-MW Tianwan-2 VVER, and Romania’s 706-MW Cernavoda-2 Candu unit. The four reactors added 3,100 MW to the grid. The Tennessee Valley Authority also returned to service the 1,155-MW Browns Ferry Unit 1 after 22 years. (See POWER, November 2007, p. 30 for details on the restart of Unit 1.)

Last year also saw construction of the most nuclear power reactors in recent years. Five units were officially launched: the 650-MW Qinshan II-4 and the 1,000-MW Hongyanhe-1 in China, the 1,000-MW Shin Kori-2 and Shin Wolsong-1 in South Korea, and the 1,650-MW Flamanville-3 in France.