March 15, 2008

Global Monitor (March 2008)

New solar cycle poses risks

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists have reported that a new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity showed signs of beginning when the cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere. Increased solar activity increases risks for power grids; critical military, civilian, and airline communications; GPS signals; and even cell phones and ATM transactions.

“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring,” said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). “In this case, it’s an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years.” SWPC is the nation’s first alert for solar activity and its effects on Earth.

A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build gradually. The number of sunspots and solar storms is expected to reach a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time (Figure 7).

7. See spot run. The first official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24 is shown in the northeast quadrant of Earth's sun. The large sunspot region just south of the equator is part of the waning Solar Cycle 23. Source: NOAA

During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp GPS signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe.

The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest visible spot to appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude location at 27 degrees north, and its negative polarity leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear signs of a new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.

Dutch favor power from natural gas

News from the Netherlands tells us that the Dutch are very busy building new, high-efficiency gas-fired power stations all over the country (Figure 8). Given Netherland's extensive natural gas fields in the North Sea, a gas pipeline infrastructure more than 6,300 miles long (in a country less than half the size of New Jersey), and the fact that the country is a net exporter of natural gas to the European Union, its choice of fuels makes perfect sense. Consider the latest three project announcements.

8. Dutch treat. Substantial North Sea natural gas resources and extensive infrastructure for moving gas make the fuel a natural for power generation in the Netherlands. Source: About.com, Geography

Alstom. Alstom Power won an order worth over $580 million from Dutch utility company Electrabel Nederland to build an 870-MW turnkey combined-cycle power plant in Lelystad, located in the center of the country. Flevocentrale will be the first GT26-based combined-cycle power plant built by Alstom in the Netherlands. Alstom has been a key player in the Dutch power generation market for a long time; 60% of the electricity generated in the country is being produced by Alstom equipment.

Alstom will design and build a fully integrated plant and provide the main power plant components, including two GT26 gas turbines and associated equipment such as steam turbines, turbogenerators, and heat-recovery steam generators (HRSGs). Worldwide, 81 Alstom GT24/GT26 gas turbines are in commercial operation.

Siemens. Siemens Energy Sector will build a turnkey combined-cycle plant—a 430-MW facility called Rijnmond II—at the Vondelingenplaat industrial and port facility, approximately two miles south of Rotterdam. The purchaser is the international independent power producer InterGen, headquartered in Burlington, Mass.

The scope of supply includes an SGT5-4000F gas turbine, a water-cooled generator, a steam turbine, plus all electrical and instrumentation and control equipment. Following the start of commercial operation, scheduled for mid-2010, Siemens will assume responsibility for plant services over a period of 12 years. The order for Siemens, including a long-term service agreement, is worth over $460 million. The entire project is estimated to cost approximately $700 million.

Rijnmond II is the third order for a combined-cycle power plant posted by Siemens since liberalization of the Dutch power market in 2000. The company had already supplied key components for the 820-MW Rijnmond I plant, which began commercial operation in 2004. In early 2007, Siemens secured the contract for the Sloecentrale combined-cycle power plant in Vlissingen Ost.

Mitsubishi. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has received a full turnkey order from Nuon N.V., a major Dutch energy company, for three power trains of natural gas–fired gas turbine combined-cycle (GTCC) systems. Each is rated over 430 MW, for a total of approximately 1,300 MW to be installed at the Nuon Magnum Plant. The GTCC order is Nuon's second submitted to MHI. The first was the Ijmond blast furnace gas-fired combined-cycle system delivered in 1997. The new plant is scheduled to produce power in 2011.

Nuon Magnum will be built in Eemshaven in the northern province of Groningen. The company plans to convert Nuon Magnum to an IGCC plant in the future, which would allow it to be fueled by coal and biomass.

Each train will consist of an M701F4 gas turbine, a steam turbine, generators, an HRSG, and other balance-of-plant components. MHI will manufacture the gas and steam turbines; Mitsubishi Electric Corp. will manufacture the generators.